One may argue that Angola stood at one such critical juncture in 2017, given the dramatic change from a decade of extraordinary economic growth to a deep macro-economic crisis, coinciding with the end of an almost four decades-long personalistic presidency. Transformative changes may often occur when a country finds itself at a critical juncture, understood as ‘moments of relative structural indeterminism when wilful actors shape outcomes in a more voluntaristic fashion than normal circumstances permit … these choices demonstrate the power of agency by revealing how long-term development patterns can hinge on distant actor decisions of the past.’ (Mahoney 2002:8). Transformational leadership, on the other hand, is creating a vision of something new, working with subordinates to identify the needed changes, and guiding the change through inspiration and motivation. He is more concerned with following existing rules than with changing the structure of the institution he is set to rule (being a company or a country).

According to MacGregor (2003), a transactional leader is not aiming at deep changes. There were early signs that Lourenço had other intentions, which raised the question whether we were witnessing a transformational rather than a transactional change of leadership. When dos Santos appointed Lourenço as his successor, most observers expected that little would change, and that Lourenço would loyally carry on with business as usual, with the ex-president calling the shots in his role as leader of the ruling party. Transformative or transactional change of leadership at the critical juncture? This article is but an attempt to discuss these issues, which we will continue studying throughout the life of the Angolan-Norwegian research programme.

Regarding what we now see from both Angolan government and society in general, what can we expect for the 2022 national election process and beyond?.What are the major developments within the ruling party, especially in view of Lourenço’s dispute with his predecessor?.Have social actors like civil society, academia, the media, advocacy groups, and opposition political parties managed to challenge MPLA’s hegemonic power?.non-oil entrepreneurs)? What other domestic political effects did the economic crisis have? What are the political implications of socio-economic changes, most importantly the post-2014 crisis brought about by the decrease in oil prices and oil production, for the composition of power groups (that is, rent-seekers vs.In order to address this subject, we focus on the following specific questions: It aims as well to identify its status in this regard now, one year before the next general elections to be held in August 2022.

This article aims to identify and discuss several political, social, and economic dynamics during the first four years of the Lourenço presidency and assess the arguments suggesting continuity, and those for change, in the governance of Angola. President Lourenço made a public commitment to root out corruption and set Angola on a course of broad-based development, comparing himself at one point to the Chinese economic reformer Deng Xiaoping. The previous president and his family were quickly obliged to give up their unfettered power over party and state, as well as the economy. Yet from 2017, at the outset of the presidency of João Lourenço, there were expectations, hope, and even cautious claims, of certain transformative reforms towards a more open and pluralistic state system – summed up in the yearning for mudança, that is, real change (Pearce et.al, 2018).

During the long reign of José Eduardo dos Santos (1979-2017), and especially in the last twenty years of his presidency, the country was characterised by a parallel institutional system centred around the omnipotent President and his family and crony capitalist network (Soares de Oliveira 2015). It has been portrayed as a particular form of petro-state (Karl, 1997) and as an archetypical case of the oil curse (Ross, 2012), a portrayal particularly visible during, and coinciding with, the oil boom in the years 2004-2014. Ever since its 1975 independence – through the civil war that ended in 2002, the long oil-boom of the 2000s, and up until today – Angola’s state formation has been dominated by one hegemonic party, the MPLA.

Shadows of doubt angola